CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2015-06-21T18:02:19Z
## Message ID: 20150621-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2015-06-21T02:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~1250 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -8/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001


Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-22T21:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150621_050100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare with ID 2015-06-21T01:22:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-06-21T01:42Z and an M2.6 flare with ID 2015-06-21T02:10:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2015-06-21T02:36Z.

[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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